NHS could be overwhelmed as the number of over-65s needing care is set to leap by a quarter in a decade

The NHS is set to be overwhelmed by a surge in elderly disabled people over the next decade, experts warned last night.

The number of over-65s in England and Wales requiring care will grow by 25 per cent by 2025, according to a study published in the Lancet Public Health journal.

That will take the cared-for population in this age group to 2.8million, up 560,000 since 2015.

The NHS is set to be overwhelmed by a surge in elderly disabled people over the next decade. Over-65s in England and Wales requiring care will grow to 2.8million, up 560,000 since 2015

Experts at the University of Liverpool, who made the predictions, said people need to start taking more responsibility for their health earlier in life to reduce this burden.

They called for urgent disease prevention policies aimed at improving diet, reducing drinking, helping smokers to quit, and targeting high blood pressure and physical inactivity - and warned that without a major change the NHS is to come under severe pressure.

Lead researcher Dr Maria Guzman-Castillo said: ‘The societal, economic, and public health implications of our predictions are substantial.

‘In particular, our findings draw attention to the scale of societal costs associated with disability in the coming decade.

 ‘Spending on long-term care will need to increase considerably by 2025, which has serious implications for a cash strapped and overburdened National Health Service and an under-resourced social care system.

‘More cost-effective health and social care provision will be needed, such as increased availability of institutional care, and better financial support - such as tax allowances or cash benefits - for family members providing informal and home care.’

The study models future trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales between 2015 and 2025, taking into account predicted rates of heart and artery disease, dementia and other conditions.

The proportion of the population over 65 is expected to rise by 19 per cent from 10.4 million to 12.4 million over the decade.

People aged 65 in 2025 should expect to live another 21.8 years - meaning they will reach 86.8, 1.7 years older than those who turned 65 in 2015.

Experts at the University of Liverpool, who made the predictions, said people need to start taking more responsibility for their health earlier in life to reduce this burden

But a quarter of remaining life after 65 is likely to be spent coping with disability, the researchers said.

Overall, dementia is the biggest disability threat, with rates expected to increase by 49 per cent among people aged 65 and over.

In 2025, an estimated 699,000 people in England and Wales are likely to require dementia care, compared with 468,000 in 2015.

Other care burdens including mental health problems, diabetes, and musculoskeletal disorders are predicted to increase by 37 per cent.

Among the over-85s, they were set almost to double.

Co-author Professor Eric Brunner, from University College London, said: ‘Our new forecasting model uses real-life evidence to assess the future impact of the competing forces that give rise to loss of health and well-being in older people in our country.

‘We find that ageing of the population in the next 10 years will cause an increase in burden of disability that we must not ignore.’

Professor Helen Stokes-Lampard, chair of the Royal College of GPs, said: ‘It’s a great testament to medical research, and the NHS, that we are living longer - but we need to ensure that our patients are living longer, with a good quality of life.

‘For this to happen, we need a properly funded, properly staffed health and social care sector with general practice, hospitals and social care all working together, and all communicating well with each other, in the best interests of delivering safe care to all our patients.

‘But as well as more resources, we agree with the authors of this study that prevention of chronic diseases that can have a serious effect on a patient’s quality of life is key, and this is something for which we all bear responsibility.

SOURCE: MailOnline, Ben Spencer

Isnt it a wonderful testament to the NHS and Public Health that we are all living longer? The increased burden on resources and the social care sector is something that needs addressing. Quality of life and safe care is paramount.